The "LifeCourse" model, a competing risk cohort microsimulation model: source code and basic concepts of the generic microsimulation programming language Modgen

This paper documents the source code of “LifeCourse”, a simple competing risk microsimulation model initially developed alongside a study on fertility decline in Bulgaria and Russia. “LifeCourse” is programmed in the generic microsimulation language Modgen developed at Statistics Canada. In the context of this contribution, the model is introduced step by step as template for other microsimulation applications and as training tool for demographic microsimulation using Modgen.microsimulation

Childlessness and the concentration of reproduction in Austria

In this paper we study the changes of reproduction concentration among women, the levels of childlessness, individual factors influencing childlessness, and the contribution of childlessness to the concentration of reproduction in Austria for the female age cohorts 1917-1961. International comparative studies find a decline in the concentration of reproduction in the last century for all western countries, a trend that was reversed for the most recent cohorts that have reached the end of their reproductive period. This reversal was mainly triggered by an increase of childlessness, a result that can be confirmed also for Austria. The country has one of the highest levels of childlessness, both currently and historically, and changes in the level of childlessness are very pronounced. Austria has very low fertility, too; between the world wars it even witnessed the lowest period fertility in the world. While cohort fertility rates peaked during the baby-boom with 2.5 children per women, fertility decreased considerably for more recent age cohorts. The recent changes in fertility can be attributed partly to composition effects resulting from the educational expansion of the last decades. As our analysis shows, even in the times of the baby boom, cohort fertility exceeded the reproductive level only for the lowest of eight different educational groups, and this group is rapidly decreasing in size. Besides the strong impact of educational on cohort fertility, childlessness and concentration measures of reproduction, a detailed study based on micro-census data reveals strong urban-rural differentials in the demographic changes of the last decades. We can conclude that the recent re-increase in reproduction concentration is an entirely urban phenomenon. Micro-census data also allow for the study of intergenerational dynamics. Comparing the educational level of women with their parents’ educational attainment, we found a strong positive effect on childlessness of downward mobility in the lower end of the educational spectrum. In the upper end of the educational spectrum we found a strong positive effect on childlessness of upward mobility.Austria, childless couples, first birth

The Generations and Gender Contextual Database: concepts and content

This paper aims at contributing to a proposal for the concept and content of the Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Program. We develop guidelines for data collection by identifying the main focus, the key dimensions as well as the main data types of the GGP Contextual Database. Based on these theoretical considerations and with a view to support a multilevel approach to GGP data, we propose a list of 200 variables that include statistical norms, legal norms and regulations, the general economic situation, welfare state policies, and culture.World, data banks

Persistence and change of the relative difference in educational attainment by ethno-cultural group and gender in Canada

This article presents analytical findings on the persistence and change of the relative difference in educational attainment by ethno-cultural group and gender in Canada. As these trends cannot be observed from a single data source, a modelling technique to integrate longitudinal data lacking ethno-cultural detail with cross-sectional Census data was developed. First- and second-generation immigrants and/or members of most visible minority groups on average reach higher educational levels than their Canadian-born peers not belonging to a visible minority. This study reveals that the relative educational differences between the studied groups are both important in extent and remarkably stable over birth cohorts. The research presented in this paper was conducted in the context of Statistics Canada’s population projection microsimulation model Demosim. Demosim marks an important milestone in establishing microsimulation for official population projections. It reflects the demand for models which can go beyond age and sex, capturing geographical detail, ethnic diversity, educational attainment and other characteristics.

The contextual database of the Generations and Gender Program: overview, conceptual framework and the link to the Generations and Gender Survey

This paper follows two aims. First it intends to give an overview of the contextual database of the Generations and Gender Program and how it is linked to the Generations and Gender Survey. Secondly, it provides a documentation of the approaches taken towards the conceptual definition and construction of the database. The document consists of two parts. The first gives a brief description of the underlying ideas of the database and the approach taken in order to develop its conceptual framework and construct the database. The second part is a note on the link between the Generations and Gender Survey and the contextual database. Starting from the GGS questionnaire, the main interfaces between micro data and contextual domains are investigated.data collection

The Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Program

The increasing recognition that the study of human behaviors has to take into account the multiple contexts in which they occur has opened a promising research avenue in social sciences. It also presents new challenges, e.g., to complement micro-level surveys with the collection of meaningful contextual data within a common conceptual framework. The Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Program aims at responding to the new data demands by providing a comparative collection of around 210 variables on a national and sub-national level, thus complementing the individual-level data collected in the Generations and Gender Survey.World, comparative analysis, data banks

Dynamic microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviours: survey and review

This paper reviews the issues to be faced in attempting to create a microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviour. These issues identified via an in-depth review of seven dynamic microsimulation models, selected from an initial set of 27 models in order to highlight the main differences in approaches and modelling options currently adopted. After presenting a brief description of each of the seven selected models, the main modelling approaches are summarized and critically appraised using five main distinguishing criteria. These criteria are the use of alignment techniques, model complexity (as reflected in the range of variables used), theoretical foundations, type of starting population, and the extent and detail of financial issues covered. Building upon this appraisal, the paper goes on to show how the ‘12 SAGE lessons’ apply in the field of health care microsimulation. The trade-off between complexity and predictive power is shown to be key. Finally an appendix summarises the main features of all 27 of the dynamic microsimulation models originally surveyed.health care, microsimulation

Concentration of Reproduction in Austria: General Trends and Differentials by Educational Attainment and Urban-Rural Setting

In this paper, we explore the inter-individual diversity in fertility among women in Austria for the female birth cohorts 1917-1961. Comparative studies revealed that all Western countries have witnessed a decline in the concentration of reproduction during the 20th century, a trend that has reversed for the most recent cohorts which have reached the end of their reproductive period. This reversal, mainly triggered by an increase in childlessness, has been hardly perceptible in Austria and limited to urban municipalities. Changes in fertility and concentration have followed very different trajectories by educational attainment as well as by the type of municipality in which women lived at age 15. Within educational categories, we found large differentials by profession and intergenerational educational mobility. A consequence of the concentration of reproduction is that the level of cohort fertility differs from the average sibship size seen from the children's perspective. In the Austrian case, in contrast to the pronounced fertility differentials by educational attainment, the average sibship size experienced by children became almost independent of parents' education. In contrast to the negative correlation between fertility and concentration found in earlier studies for the first demographic transition and the baby boom, the fertility level and concentration moved in the same direction, and did so for an extended time period following the baby boom, accelerating changes from the children's perspective.

Concentration of reproduction in Austria: general trends and differentials by educational attainment and urban-rural setting

In this paper, we explore the inter-individual diversity in fertility among women in Austria for the female birth cohorts 1917-1961. Comparative studies revealed that all Western countries have witnessed a decline in the concentration of reproduction during the 20th century, a trend that has reversed for the most recent cohorts that have reached the end of their reproductive period. This reversal, mainly triggered by an increase in childlessness, has been far less pronounced in Austria and limited to urban municipalities. Changes in fertility and concentration have followed very different trajectories by educational attainment as well as by the type of municipality in which women lived at age 15. Within educational categories, we found large differentials by profession and intergenerational educational mobility. A consequence of the concentration of reproduction is that the level of cohort fertility differs from the average sibship size seen from the children’s perspective. In the Austrian case, in contrast to the pronounced fertility differentials by educational attainment, the average sibship size experienced by children became almost independent of parents’ education. In difference to the negative correlation between fertility and concentration found in earlier studies for the first demographic transition and the baby boom, the fertility level and concentration moved in the same direction, and did so for an extended time period following the baby boom, accelerating changes from the children’s perspective.Austria, family composition, fertility trends

Intergenerational Educational Transmission within Families: An Analysis and Microsimulation Projection for Austria

In this contribution we study intergenerational educational transmission within families in Austria. The paper is divided into an analytical part and a synthesis of the resulting behavioural models to a comprehensive computer microsimulation model that is used to project the future educational composition of the population. The models are based on retrospective event history data collected in the special programme of the 1996 micro-census, which was also used to generate the starting population for projections. The analysis of school choices reveals a very strong influence of parental educational attainment leading to strong intergenerational transmission mechanisms within families, i. e., considerable intergenerational persistence of educational careers within families. In contrast to the continuing educational expansion at the population level, very stable behavioural relationships can be found on the micro level when accounting for parental educational attainment. Our projections reveal that the educational expansion that we experienced in the last decades will continue at a very moderate speed in the next decades until an equilibrium is reached. In the equilibrium, half of the population will obtain a Matura diploma of which 30% will also graduate from university.